Electricity North West weather watch – April
Electricity North West weather watch – April
Recently it has been a much calmer month compared to February and early March when the ‘Beast from the East’ caused power cuts to 23,000 homes, although the subsequent mini ‘Beast from the East’ thankfully didn’t impact power supplies in the North West.
Last month also marked the official start of spring, with the meteorological spring starting on the 1st March and the astronomical spring starting on the 20th March. Interested in finding out the difference between meteorological and astronomical spring? Discover more here. 
Let’s find out if we have some lovely weather in store for us this month and also when we’re more likely to experience snow either at Easter or Christmas with MeteoGroup senior meteorologist, Matthew Dobson.
A look back
Cold easterly winds were a major feature of March. Especially during the opening few days of the month, when an airmass that had its origins in deepest Siberia chilled the UK. For the start of March, the intensity of the cold was very rare indeed. The North West received some heavy, drifting snow, prolonged frost, severe wind chill and daytime temperatures staying below freezing. The worst of the snow occurred over the Pennines and Cumbria, while sheltered parts of west Lancashire and Merseyside, recorded lesser amounts.
The trigger for such an intense late winter cold spell was almost certainly in the polar stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere between 10km and 50km above the North Pole. Occasionally in mid-late winter, the normal westerly flow in the stratosphere around the Pole breaks down. A reversal in wind direction and a huge and sudden rise in temperature occur in the stratosphere. When this happens in January or February, we frequently see cold weather patterns developing over parts of Europe and the UK about two to six weeks afterwards.
The fact that we saw a second, if rather more short-lived burst of very cold easterly winds and drifting snow around mid-March this year was no coincidence. The same stratospheric influence was still driving our weather, forcing a second blast of very cold air from the Arctic and Scandinavia down over the UK. Late winter and spring 2013 saw a similar pattern of events, with significant drifting snowfall and a long cold spell in March 2013.
A look forward
Although the 1st April (Easter Sunday) began with some sunshine and dry conditions, low pressure has been the main influence on the UK weather pattern so far. During Easter Sunday night and through Monday, a broad band of heavy rain and fresh easterly winds swept northwards across the North West. It was cold enough for this rain to fall as snow over the Pennines and higher parts of Cumbria. However, for most places, it was a wet, cold and raw day on Bank Holiday Monday. At this time between 15 and 25mm of rain fell widely in a 24 hour period, with around 40mm over some of the Fells. Further heavy rain and showers over the past few days, and a lack of warm weather to help dry out of the saturated soils, has resulted in some river flooding.
Snow at Easter in the UK is not unusual and some climate scientists suggest that snow is more likely to fall in the UK at Easter than at Christmas. However, since Easter Day can vary from being as early as March 22nd to as late as April 25th, Easter snow tends to occur more when Easter is in March than during April.
Back to this April, and it seems likely that as we head through mid-month, we’ll see low pressure relinquish its grip on the UK, with high pressure areas nudging a bit closer. High pressure is where the air is sinking and generally means drier, calmer and sunnier than normal weather conditions. However, the high pressure area is more likely to be located to the north of the UK than to the south, so southern areas could still suffer from a chilly easterly wind at times. In fact, most of MeteoGroup’s own statistical weather models point towards a cool April, on average this year.
By late April, a change back to more unsettled and windier conditions is our forecast. With chilly north or north westerly winds, it still looks on the cool side. This weather pattern could produce some frost and also snow showers, even at this late stage in the month! All being well, there will be some welcome sunshine between the showers.