Electricity North West weather watch – June

Interestingly, this month’s weather watch reveals that it was the North West that enjoyed the best of the weather in May, which must be a rarity.

However, today (Friday 1^st June) we are closely monitoring the weather due to a yellow weather warning in place for rain today and tomorrow. 

Let’s find out if the sunshine will return or will the rest of June be a washout from MeteoGroup senior meteorologists George Goodfellow and Matt Dobson.    

A look back

May started on a cool, windy and unsettled note, as a low pressure system moved in from the Atlantic, bringing showers, rain and strong winds to the region. There was also another short episode of wet and windy weather just prior to mid-month, too. But for most of May, there was a lot of dry weather, and a decent amount of warm sunshine. This was due to extensive and persistent high pressure areas overhead. High pressure close to or over the UK usually brings mainly dry and settled weather, and looking at the observations for the North West for the whole of May, that appears to have been the case.

For example, in the last week of the month, rain gauges in the region recorded very little rainfall, which was well below the average for May. Equally, daily temperature records show that in the last week of May, daytime temperatures regularly reached the low-to-mid twenties Celsius, with highs around 27 degrees Celsius over the late Spring Bank Holiday weekend.

It was a similar story during the early May Bank Holiday weekend, with temperatures climbing to reach the low-to-mid twenties Celsius on May Day Bank Holiday (Monday 7^th).

Not all of the UK was so fortunate. Some eastern coastal parts of Scotland and England had a dull and chilly May on average, whilst southern areas saw locally torrential downpours, thunderstorms and flash flooding during the final seven days. So why did the North West have this relatively fine and dry weather whilst other parts of the UK suffered from thunderstorms, flash flooding or cloudy, cold and grey weather?

One reason is that high pressure tended to be nearer to the north of the UK than to the south. This meant that southern England and Wales were farthest away from the high pressure ridge and more susceptible to humid and thundery weather extending north from France and Spain.

Secondly, with winds across the UK tending to be from the east or south-east for much of the month. The low cloud and fog blowing in from the North Sea tended to be blocked and broken up by the Pennines, so there was much more sunshine for the North West. This sunshine, combined with a relatively warm continental airmass, helped temperatures to rise well above average for the time of year. 

A look ahead

So, after a relatively fine and dry May, the next question is will this pattern continue in June?

The forecast for early June shows high pressure across the UK, but it will be weaker over the North West during the next couple of days than we have seen recently. Additionally, the humid and thundery conditions that have plagued southern areas in recent days are expected to extend up into northern areas. Today and tomorrow (Friday 1^st June and Saturday 2^nd June), clusters of slow moving and heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely, with the threat of lightning strikes hitting trees and possibly power lines. There is a very small chance that a few funnel clouds could form as well, as winds will be converging from different directions under the thunderstorms, leading to the air rotating as it rises. Keep an eye out beneath the dark bases of developing thunderstorm clouds!

A drier and settled middle of next week, but before we reach the middle of the month we’re seeing a spell of cooler, breezier and more unsettled weather coming in. There are then signs of a return to more high pressure and drier, calmer and warmer weather again before the end of June. Very broadly, this fits in with expectations for the summer, which should be drier and warmer than average, although don’t be surprised if there are a few short spells of more typical British summer weather mixed in between!

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