Electricity North West weather watch – March

Our engineers worked tirelessly over two days to repair damage caused by the severe weather and restore power to more than 23,000 customers across the North West. 

You can catch-up on our restoration efforts and see what our engineers were up against to repair the damage by visiting our news section here.

Let’s find out if we have seen the last of the bad weather and also a look back on the coldest weather we’ve experienced since February 1991 with MeteoGroup senior meteorologists, Matthew Dobson and Nick Prebble.

A look back

The first ten days of February were chilly, with a few sharp frosts and also scattered snow showers, as winds were often from a northerly quadrant. Temperatures fell to -9.6C on the morning of 7th February in Cumbria, and were widely down at -4C to -7C in the North West.

Deep areas of low pressure then raced eastwards across the UK from the north Atlantic during the middle of the month, with episodes of widespread heavy rain and strong winds across the North West during the weekend of the 10th/11th and again during 13th, 14th and 15th.

In last month’s weather update, we mentioned something we were keeping an eye on that was likely to bring about a dramatic change to the weather during late February; the Stratospheric Polar Vortex. This is a ring of strong, high altitude westerly winds that circulate the normally bitterly cold North Pole in the winter half of the year. When the vortex of strong westerly winds is in good shape, this locks the cold air in over the North Pole and we often see quite mild conditions over the UK. But occasionally, global weather patterns can combine to disrupt this polar vortex and cause it to weaken or even collapse completely. When it collapses, the air above the North Pole warms rapidly and the winds in the polar stratosphere flip to easterly. These easterly winds start to ‘burrow down’ towards the surface over a period of ten days, increasing the likelihood that the UK will see some cold weather.

This occurred with great force in late February and early March this year, with the coldest airmass to push across the UK since February 1991, coming in from northern Siberia. While the North West of the UK was somewhat sheltered by the Pennines from the relentless feed of North Sea snow showers it was still bitterly cold. Some heavy snow showers fell at times, especially over the Pennines and north Cumbria. MeteoGroup were able to warn its customers of this impending severe cold spell, several weeks in advance. This was due to us anticipating this major change in the stratosphere before it occurred.

A look forward

Through the remainder of March there will be a high degree of variability and further cold interludes can be expected, the first one starting this weekend as winds are drawn in from the east again. Low pressure is also expected to be a frequent visitor to the UK bringing changeable but at times unsettled conditions as areas of rain become interspersed with sunny/clear interludes.

There is a greater chance of strong winds compared to this week, as low pressure areas track with greater energy over the UK. The south western quarter of the UK will see the strongest of any winds, since the low pressure areas will still be taking a more southerly track than usual, often passing over southern Britain. Temperatures will fluctuate close to the average, but this weekend and Thursday 15^th March should see some mild air being pushed northwards from the sub-tropics.

A pattern change across Europe is projected to occur after mid-March. This is for the low pressure track from the Atlantic to be located overhead or just to the east of the UK, thus giving wet and windy conditions on several days to the North West, as winds become westerly or north westerly. A couple of further cold interludes can be expected, the first one starting this weekend as winds are drawn from the east again.

However, there are signs that into the last week or so of March and into the start of April, a high pressure ridge could become positioned to the west of the UK. This could force Atlantic lows to pass south eastwards over Scandinavia, leading to a period of more sustained chilly conditions. This will limit temperatures from climbing particularly high by day and furthermore increasing the risk of late season frosts. It does seem unlikely that high pressure and sustained dry and calm weather will settle over the UK for any extended period, so worth keeping the brolly or rain coat close to hand!

In the event of an unexpected power cut you can contact Electricity North West 24/7 on the free national number 105 or call 0800 195 4141 or let us know on Twitter  or Facebook.

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